Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 186.879176 228.659050 281.186852 353.496262 452.792759 5.880663e+02 7.932269e+02
2025-02-16 140.317009 187.893866 255.889827 364.912103 545.510876 8.548045e+02 1.485817e+03
2025-02-23 114.637371 162.889977 238.115335 372.766544 630.903790 1.168851e+03 2.637864e+03
2025-03-02 95.283270 140.972882 216.647018 363.405567 678.323961 1.451708e+03 4.240231e+03
2025-03-09 81.591922 124.555740 199.189586 353.698303 718.738453 1.760662e+03 6.778680e+03
2025-03-16 70.738107 110.612116 182.493447 339.272716 740.507932 2.048709e+03 1.048620e+04
2025-03-23 67.510696 109.158980 188.275127 374.446543 912.565610 3.096422e+03 2.833050e+04
2025-03-30 61.916386 102.386228 182.050783 379.754701 1004.626065 4.026850e+03 6.806425e+04
2025-04-06 58.114090 98.329634 180.463902 396.128740 1148.576772 5.644186e+03 2.714610e+05
2025-04-13 53.156856 91.295428 171.096693 388.729453 1202.207494 6.905357e+03 1.143016e+06
2025-04-20 51.846475 91.307702 177.342167 427.958671 1489.535426 1.176519e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 50.199940 90.364456 181.171852 462.028587 1803.488656 2.040072e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 48.056049 88.261789 182.283178 490.196607 2149.857231 3.745432e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 45.644026 85.265513 180.625866 508.924433 2486.522524 7.022091e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 43.233899 81.950692 177.492316 521.327370 2818.227011 1.387311e+05 NaN
2025-05-25 40.163107 76.764931 168.390334 506.753821 2912.792407 2.152052e+05 NaN
2025-06-01 37.419071 72.047802 159.844765 491.681710 2991.360489 3.434379e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 34.748124 67.238192 150.327231 469.396070 2971.759711 4.881559e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 34.529760 68.197679 157.443566 523.979723 3962.089934 9.042145e+06 NaN
2025-06-22 33.050664 65.947413 154.740785 532.287958 4438.926771 1.287719e+09 NaN
2025-06-29 32.087664 64.860679 155.385195 558.030606 5322.329105 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 30.385164 61.761193 149.293313 546.376468 5541.397826 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 30.263465 62.643966 155.996874 608.556099 7695.153013 NaN NaN